Lottery Guy

Can You Predict Lottery Numbers?

February 27th, 2014   ·   Read 70 Comments...

Prediction. Credit: Patrick Feller @ Flickr[This is the continuation of a discussion that originated on my reviews of lottery systems page. It was getting too long there so I've brought it over here to a new post for reply]

We pick up the discussion with a comment left by Andy. Now, I’m NOT picking on Andy :-), it’s just that his comment is very typical of the way a lot of people think about systems and predicting numbers. So it’s a good comment for me to elaborate on in more detail.

So Andy, like a lot of people, is looking for a system that gives a better way of picking numbers – he’s tried a few, and found they don’t work. So I asked him why he thinks ANY system could pick better lottery numbers?

(I’ll reply to Andy’s specific points as we go, hopefully that will make easier reading)

Hi LG
I disagree with your opinion about the selection of lotto numbers.
I think lotto numbers can be predicted if we have a good system or strategy.

OK – but I wouldn’t describe it as my opinion :-). It’s a logical conclusion based on the evidence, i.e. there is no evidence that prediction is possible. It has never been proven.

My opinion about it is as below:
1) I think lotto numbers can be predicted. Indeed lotto is a random and chance game but it’s a real science too in the view of mathematics. The reason that we have not yet found a good software is we have not yet had the enough ability to design it, otherwise, the people who possess such software do not want to share it.

This is fairly dangerous territory. If we try to make something sound clever just to justify doing complicated things with it, then I think we’ve already lost sight of the big picture.

That is, these are just tiny little balls bouncing around a big drum. So what could software possibly do to work out which balls make it out of the machine this week..?

There is a good example like the Weather Forecast. We have to admit that today’s accuracy of the weather forecast is much better than before. It depends on the progress of contemporary computer science (including the Artificial Intelligence and the Remote Sensing Technology) completely.

This is a bad analogy though. Weather prediction is based on lots of measurements of the current state of play. We can see where weather fronts are now, and know pretty reliably where they are going in the short term based on known factors.

In lottery terms that would be like taking a freeze frame a fraction of a second before a ball is drawn, and using the speed and direction of travel of each ball to attempt to predict which one is about to be drawn.

The problemĀ  of course is that nobody is going to let you set up your laser tracking devices in the studio to monitor the draw as it takes place :-) And then predicting the following ball at that point is like predicting the weather a year from now. Then you’ve still got more balls to go.

Oh, and the ticket machines have already closed before the draw started anyway :-)

2) Saying lotto numbers can be predicted means that:

a. The lotto’s ODDS can be reduced down by our tools which include the paper & pen, Excel, software such C++, Java… etc, and even someone’s Mystical methods….
The better the tool the lower the odds.

Yes, but sadly just saying it doesn’t make it true.

Theories are fine. Although if you can’t prove them then they’re not quite so useful.

But if theories are not based on anything more than ‘a want’ of something to be true, then they really aren’t useful at all.

b. The meaning of PREDICTION is that we can win constantly (not each time!) and economically (get a real profit!) by using a system which is really working for lotto. Saying win means various prizes from the lowest to a JP.

This goes against the whole design of the game. Lots of people have to ‘lose’ in order for other people to win. (I say ‘lose’ but in my opinion the fun of playing means you never really lose).

So if this were possible and it happened, where would it leave us?

With an economically unviable game is where. That is, the lottery company goes bust because we all make a profit from playing.

Or maybe just the ‘select few’ will know ‘the secret’ and get to enjoy cheating the rest in what has become an unfair game…

3) A good lotto software should furthest follow the statistical law of random and chance in lotto games and furthest replace the functions of human brain including Statistical Calculation, the Forecast Analysis (similar to Artificial Intelligence), Optimized Feedback, and other operations.

Rabbity. Credit: sammydavisdog @ Flickr

You’re disappearing down the rabbit hole here. The sellers of these prediction systems want us to believe that all this complex sounding maths stuff is the holy grail of predicting the results. But what is it based on? Why would statistics or AI have any relevance at all to this situation? Fundamentally what mechanism do you believe could ever make a lottery be predictable?

Some software has Statistical Calculation only but cannot make a good Forecast Analysis – like Gail Howard’s Advantage Plus.

This is exactly my point. They can do ‘clever maths stuff’ and show you all sorts of data and graphs. But the forecast/prediction that comes from that data is useless.

So doesn’t that therefore mean that those statistics are useless for prediction?

You might say, no, it’s just that particular piece of software isn’t clever enough. It doesn’t know what to do with the statistical data.

But then, why do none of these pieces of software make good predictions?

It’s like the Emperors New Clothes. At some point, you have to say, “that guy is freakin’ naked!” :-)

It’s the statistics that aren’t any use, not the lack of knowing what to do with them.

Some software has so many Filters in which they include too many uncertainties to select like Expert Lotto. As Stan (the owner of Expert Lotto ) said: “The mistakes don’t come from my system, but you can not select the Filters or the Settings correctly when the members’re complaining with”.

You know why they put so many filters and options in them? Because whether they are a well-meaning software seller or not, it would be real easy to prove their software doesn’t work if it had nothing more than a ‘predict’ button.

It’s all about ‘doing something’ that feels mathematical or technical. When in reality there is no evidence that it helps one jot.

What a real good excuse! In fact NO members, including Stan himself, can get any bigger win by using the Expert Lotto since it was born.

Exactly. It’s just an illusion of number prediction – which you have seen through on this occasion.

Sometimes it might look like it works, most of the time it doesn’t. And that’s just the same as random luck.

In Closing

Before this post turns into a book length essay, I’ll end it here by saying two things.

Firstly, it’s worth remembering that the lottery company do not want a predictable game. Because they need to run a fair and unpredictable game to ensure their continuing profits. There’s also the small matter of an unfair game being illegal…

So anything that looks predictable or non-random to their experts is going to trigger an instant full-scale internal audit.

Which does make it pretty unrealistic to expect that plugging a few formulas into an Excel spreadsheet could ever ‘beat the lottery’.

And secondly, there is no evidence to support the theory that lottery games can be predicted.

That’s despite how many years lottery games have been available, how long computers (and even supercomputers) have been available and the many, many thousands of people who swear it works.

Spock. Credit: JD Hancock @ FlickrThe world is full of genuinely brilliant scientific, engineering and mathematical minds who have not won the lottery. Food for thought?

Categories: Picking Lottery Numbers

70 Comments so far ↓

  • Lantern

    Yes, yes it is possible.
    A mathematician of the american south, called Helio B. Caramuru did this by equations very complicated. HE sent his thesis to many scientific societies, which in addition to lottery could also provide for other events, but was not given much attention.
    His thesis is called “Mathematics of Evolution,” but he became discouraged by disintered of academic scientists, and became a recluse and does not share his knowledge with anyone saying: “do not want anyone to use this knowledge for greedy purposes.”
    If you want to know more refer here:
    http://www.researchgate.net/post/Helio_Barnabe_Caramuru-Theoretical_Science_Researcher-Not_Academic-Developed_the_theory_The_mathematics_of_evolution

    • LG

      Hi Lantern,

      I’ve looked further afield than your link, but I don’t see anything by Helio that proves this?

      It’s also worth pointing out that Helio isn’t a mathematician, he’s actually a retired civil engineer. It’s also free to join ‘Research Gate’ and anyone can publish anything – it’s not like a peer reviewed journal. So there may be very good reasons why other academics haven’t shown interest in his work.

  • Rebecca Tilney

    I’ve been a member of BFL before and was barely winning anything.

    • LG

      BFL is a syndicate – they don’t do any kind of prediction..? Syndicates are not a magic formula – they just give you a solid better chance of winning. So ‘barely winning anything’ (i.e. winning something, while waiting for a big win), could have been ‘winning nothing at all’ without the syndicate :-)

  • Marjan Novotni

    Hi everyone, I have a degree in mathematics, the lottery numbers are a random event, however I can find the sequence or equation for any lottery! But the numbers have to have come out already…

    You need good mathematical knowledge to understand what I do. But if I design enough equations I can hopefully design a future predicament equation for the lottery numbers.

    • Grace

      I too have taken the time to find several patterns but as yet have not been able to reach the finish point. Have always had a love for numbers and know that there is a pattern.

      • HMJ

        Yes I too have always loved working with Numbers. And yes I have won several levels for good payouts. Everyone keeps talking about the balls falling in a predicted fastion? Sorry! They don’t do it that way anymore in my state.

        They don’t look for winning numbers. They look for the numbers that haven’t been picked and post that one. (Please comment) I will explain why my winnings went down instead of up.

        It is all done on computer now. Just like Vagus. All the %’s are prefigured before the numbers are analyzed. Thats why you no longer can watch the draw. Then there is so much time past before the numbers are posted.

        There is a lot they don’t tell you in order to make an accurate prediction.

        Is there a state left that shows a state lottery draw at the cut off time for the draw?

        Please comment, and advise, positive or negative.
        Thankyou
        HMJ

    • Reginald

      Hi Marjan,

      I’m very intersted in your research with finding an equation for the lottery numbers. Would you be willing to share your findings with me so that I can analyze it?

    • Rule Let

      Random just means we don’t have the knowledge to understand it.

      The gambling businesses know this. That’s exactly why they keep changing the Power Ball & Mega Millions numbers. Every time they add a new state they up the odds on the game.

      You can always change your odds. Getting struck by lightning is a low chance, but we all know being out in the rain with a metal rod held high will increase your chances. The same with the lottery.

  • Judex

    I do a little computer programming. In a previous post, I mentioned that it is possible to win the Jackpot very often, but it will cost too much to syndicate a try, and you will never win what you invested because the total amount received is divided too many times, mainly for the Government, the Shops, the Organizers, etc. etc. !

    The commercial softwares are too light to give ample winning chances.

    I think it is not possible to predict the loto because there is no pattern to follow and analyze.

    In the beginning, I was winning often enough those small sums, but I stopped winning after a few months. I was betting the same entries every week. Hence, I started to wonder why? Coincidence?

  • Grace

    I too have wondered many times why the numbers I had played consistently for some time just “happen” to come up – the day I don’t play them.
    Bad luck or a rigged system??

    Coincidence – I think not – everything happens for a reason.

    In your opinion what would be the chances of winning a lottery if you played consistent sets that included all the numbers? Wouldn’t you have a better chance in lotteries that required only 5 numbers.

    • LG

      Definitely rigged – call the lottery police now.

      No, I’m joking :-) (excuse my sense of humour…)

      I honestly don’t believe that playing or not playing numbers makes any difference to wether they come up or not. There’s no good reason for a lottery company to rig a draw – they make a lot of money if we win or lose, and they sell more tickets if lots of people are seen to win. Rigging a lottery seriously puts that guaranteed profit at risk. It’s also very hard to do (but see the Nick Perry scandal for some fun shenanigans) and it would be incredibly difficult to get away with – too many audits and checks.

      As for playing all the numbers, it depends on the game and how you arrange those numbers. Playing too many numbers can simply mean you spread yourself so thin that you get multiple hits, but only 1 or 2 balls all on different lines. Some dodgy lottery systems rely on this technique to make you think “it’s working” — when the bottom line is you’re still not actually winning anything!

      And finally, yes, you do generally have a better chance with games that pick 5 instead of 6 balls. There’s more on this kind of thing in my free lottery tips course.

      Hope that helps :-)

    • Rule Let

      This may sound crazy, but if you want one simple way of improving your chances at winning here it is. This is an example…..
      If the Mega Millions number came in as 16-19-28-29-68 (9) just don’t play those exact numbers again. You’ve now ruled out 1 out of that 258,890,850 odds. This may seem pointless, but numbers in that odds bracket usually don’t repeat.
      Just look at some of the odds on the back of these lottery ticket play slips. You don’t have to rig a game if the odds are against you.

      • LG

        Unfortunately that isn’t true.

        If you roll a 6 on a dice, that doesn’t make it any less likely to appear next roll.

        The same applies to lottery games. They usually don’t repeat simply because there are so many other combinations available. So I’m afraid you can’t actually eliminate any result as being less likely just because it’s already happened. Sorry :-)

  • HMJ

    Now that it’s computerised, they have control, not the player!

    They choose when, where and how many. It’s all done via %’s in their favor!

    Is there a State out there that still show’s the draw at the cut off time? Or tells you after the fact only. If there is that’s the state I may play.

    Please reply.

    • LG

      Hi HMJ,

      Not sure I understand what you mean. The lottery company have control over the draw regardless of it being computerised or a ball based draw.

      Yes, the percentages are precalculated and in their favour. Just like every business. But that doesn’t affect the odds or your chances of winning.

      You seem to be suggesting there is something shady going on in your local game..? But lotteries profit when they run a perfectly fair and random draw. So why would they do anything shady and risk losing their profit and going to jail? Doesn’t make sense.

    • Rule Let

      HMJ, you have a valid point. Anything computerized is controlled in some way. Who do you think created this computerized system? A human.
      Think about this. More people win from quick picks because more people play quick picks. But we don’t know how these quick picks are generated.
      This is where the controlled part comes in. A computer in Texas can generate the exact numbers over and over again. No one has ever looked into this, but I personally have gotten repeat numbers that have copied 3-4 of my same numbers.
      Rigged, I don’t know, but this is some easy way of stopping people from winning.

  • Kelly

    Was just wondering if there has ever been an instance where 2 lotto machines dropped the same number during a single draw. You’d think that this must have happened at some time.

  • Ryno

    Hi LG. I’m teaching maths at a high school in South Africa. And when teaching probabilities, learners would always ask “sir can we predict the lotto using probabilities”. As a teacher you should be bias toward discouraging them to gamble. So my answer would always be yes, but using maths the odds would still be very small. And the game is designed to give you an illusion of “I can win, it’s simple” but the odds will tell you something else.

    Anyway I have a question. To win the lotto you should match numbers. No looking at a simple thing called coincidence (a striking occurrence of two or more events at one time apparently by mere chance). Can you cut out coincidence to increase your odds of winning?

  • Romulo

    Hi, I have read your above comments and I have been playing lotto for awhile now. Yes, lotto numbers are random but using a system is a lot better than playing quick picks. I had some luck playing California Super Lotto in a pool. We have had hits for 5 without the mega number and sometimes 4 numbers with a mega number. Recently, I have been using Winslips Lotto Sytems and hit 3 or 4 numbers every other 2 games or so. Maybe I am just lucky for now but I am hopeful I will win the big one. By the way, I play 6/42 Philippine Lotto. I live in the Philippines right now with my wife.

  • Ronaldo Souza

    Hello,

    I agree with what was covered in this excellent article. Have the belief that mathematical techniques help increase the chances of winning the lottery, but we always need the luck factor in choosing numbers.

    Here in Brazil, using very closings in excel to play with more numbers and arrangements of these conditions exist mathematical locks, but since you set the amount of numbers required to have prizes on the cards. And how to make sure that the chosen numbers are right? Not give to predict unless you bet on trends.

    Hugs and Success

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