Lottery Guy

Should I Play The Same Lottery Numbers In Every Draw?

June 12th, 2007   ·   Read 48 Comments...

same lottery numbers every drawThis is one of those lottery questions that can make your head spin. Should I play the same lottery numbers or change them? It can turn your brain inside out if you overthink it…

If my numbers haven’t come up yet, surely they are more likely to in future, so I should stick to playing my selected numbers right?

If I keep changing my numbers isn’t that like two lots of numbers changing making it even harder to win?

Sounds plausible. But sometimes we can overanalyse a problem!

The fact is, past results have no bearing whatsoever on future results. They simply can’t. Because underneath those lovely numbers… it’s just balls.

(Even if they seem to make those pretty patterns when you really, really look for them…)

They’re just little round balls bouncing around inside a draw machine. And those balls have no memory. They aren’t all polite and considerate, and therefore take it in turns to be drawn! They don’t know or care about the law of averages.

So is it better to play the same lottery numbers every week?

Each draw is a unique, random event. So it actually doesn’t matter.

If you play the same numbers each draw, or change them every week – it makes no difference.

Because each set of numbers always has exactly the same chance of being drawn. And each draw is a single unique event. Simple as that.

So if you like the the numbers you have chosen, by all means keep them and play them every time. It won’t do you any harm.

But equally, if you like changing your numbers once in a while, or every single draw – feel free, because that isn’t going to hurt you either.

There are some reasons not to pick certain numbers (clue: think popular!), but I’ll talk more about those reasons another time (or you can read about that and lots more in my Lottery Strategy Group).

Got a lottery question you’d like answered? Either add a comment below, or submit your question here.

Categories: Lottery Questions · Picking Lottery Numbers

48 Comments so far ↓

  • Chan

    Isn’t it true though that it increases your chances by playing the same number each time? I mean if I were to flip a coin 10 times and guess head on all 10 times, isn’t there a higher probability of getting heads at least once. I know it’s 50/50 each time but if you flip a coin 10 times you are bound to get heads at least once. I don’t know the amount of years it would take, but if 100 years went by for a lottery number and it never got picked isn’t it likely to get picked sometime or another using my example. Please respond??

    • LG

      Hi Chan,

      In short, no :-)

      The increase in your chances comes from guessing 10 times NOT from guessing the same thing 10 times. Your chances of being right are exactly the same if you guess heads 10 times in a row, or if you change it every single time.

      Heads is likely to appear in 10 flips – but it’s likely because there are only 2 possible results. Repeatedly choosing it doesn’t make it more likely to appear :-). Mathematically speaking, each flip is an ‘independent event’ so what happened before has no bearing on the next flip – so if you were wrong last time, your chances of being wrong are still exactly the same next time.

      • Chan

        Yes, I agree… but there is more of a likely hood of getting heads at least once within that 10 times. It would be :

        Probability(at least one head in 10 flips)
        Probability(not all tails in 10 flips)
        1-Probability(10 tails in a row)
        1- 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2
        1-(1/1024) = 1024/1024 – 1/1024 = 1623/1024 = 99.9% chance of heads at least once.

        With that being said isn’t it likely out of 1 million lottery draws or so ( whatever the number may need to be to get that high of a probability)… to at least get your one combination of numbers at least once. So yeah, you may be wrong and wrong as you guess heads on each time as each time is independent but your likeliness of being correct with your lottery numbers at least once increases as you play many times with the same number in WHOLE.

      • LG

        But the calculation doesn’t change if you guess 10 heads in a row, 10 tails in a row, heads/tails alternately or any other combination of guesses.

        So it’s not guessing the same result that gives you a high chance of being right – it’s purely down to guessing more times.

  • Chan

    If you were to do a Billion lottery drawings for example. What are the odds that your combo of numbers get chosen at LEAST once. It’s got to be a great likeliness of happening. So wouldn’t it be safe to assume that your odds of getting it right out of many drawings would increase throughout the drawings of that game? What if I play the same numbers through out my life time and for 20 generations after my death. Do you think the likeliness of the numbers is likely to get drawn at some point or another collectively.

    • LG

      But the point is, you’re EXACTLY as likely if you play the same numbers or keep changing them :-)

      The same applies if it’s 10 draws or a billion.

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