[Q] I’ve been analysing all my past lottery results over the years and whilst I know these things are supposed to be random, there is a pattern. Some numbers have definitely been drawn more often than others, and some have definitely appeared in the jackpot combination more than others. Should I play those numbers?

[A] You’re absolutely right.

Do you remember rolling a dice at school and charting the results? You tallied up each number as it was rolled, and then drew a little bar graph of the results. And the graph made pretty much a straight line proving that all the numbers had the same chance of being rolled.

Or did it?

Actually your graph was pretty wonky - oh yes it was! But don’t take offense, I’m sure you drew yours just as well as I did ;-). But all of our graphs were actually pretty wonky, and wonky in different ways too. If we took all our results together and drew another graph then we’d have one that was smoother, but still not perfectly straight.

We all get caught up in what we think we learned about ‘averages’.

But the fact is if you take any set of past results from any lottery for any period in time, you will find the same thing. Some results appear more or less often than others - a wonky graph. And that’s because this is exactly the sort of result that is entirely normal for a random process. If it were not possible for this to happen then the results would not be random.

With randomness if you actually repeat the ‘test’ enough times then every possible set of results would happen. Not just every result, but every different wonky graph for each set of results you pull out. So everything from never winning a single thing on the lottery, to hitting the jackpot every single draw for your whole life!

This is how random works. Just because the current state of play is ‘less likely than the true average’ does not mean there is anything unusual going on.

The weak point in the chain here is actually our brains - they love to see patterns in randomness. That’s the nature of our brains, we just can’t help trying to make a nice comfortable order out of things. And when it happens to be numbers we’re trying to make order of we’re even worse than ever!

So the real question here is not which numbers to play as a result of all this analysis, but whether the past results have anything useful to reveal to us in the first place. And the fact is, they don’t.

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Those of you in the US will be well aware of what has become known as the ‘anti online gambling law’. But you might not be aware of the work to challenge it. Well, we now have a court date!

For those that haven’t heard of the anti online gambling law, you’ll be stunned to find your American cousins are not allowed to play in online lottery syndicates, in any country, not even the US. Why? Because this piece of crazy all crushing law was snuck through, hidden beneath the SAFE Port Act - an entirely unrelated piece of legislation to improve security of US ports! It’s interesting to note that the “Internet Gambling Prohibition and Enforcement Act” was previously rejected when it wasn’t hidden under the carpet. (You can find the bill here at the Library of Congress).

Thankfully Lee Rousso, an attorney in Renton, WA has been successful in securing a hearing date to challenge the law. Yes, he’s taking Washing State to court, in what will be the first challenge to this crazy piece of unwanted law. The hearing will be 21 September 2007. So mark your diaries cousin America, it could all change. (You can follow Rousso’s progress here).

What do you think of the US ‘anti online gambling law’? How have you been affected personally? Add you comments below.

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Did you guess how ‘Derren Brown: The System’ worked? Did you spot it even before the coin toss trick? I did but then I’m used to spotting such things as the same trick is used by lottery system sellers.

What Derren did was take a woman at random and feed her horse racing predictions. She was aware that she was part of an experiment, and that ‘The System’ was supposed to be a way to guarantee picking winners every time at horse racing.

For the first race she was given a winner and told to just watch the race. Once the predicted winner rode home her confidence was visibly boosted. The next race her own money was at risk. To her great excitement, she won again. A third and fourth time turned her into a firm believer that The System was real, and completely proven. After all, four winners out of four races, what are the chances of that?

The System Explained

For the fifth race, our lucky winner got to meet the creator of The System. And here’s where Derren revealed to her how it all worked. No, he wasn’t psychic or the discoverer of some mathematical miracle. Neither was he plain lucky or working with secret stable insider information. It was simply a con. A well carried out con.

Her perception was that The System worked because she won every race. But this was only her perception, and that of the viewer with the information revealed so far. The reality however was very different. Because she was not the only person in the experiment. In fact, thousands of people all believed they were the only one! Derren had simply covered every possible outcome. The thousands of people who had been allocated the losing horses in race one were simply thrown out with apologies, while all those given the horse that won moved on to race 2. Then Derren simply split them down again between all the horses running, and again only kept those that it turned out had been given the horse that won. Repeated over race three and four, there was just one very happy woman remaining - and thousands of not so happy people who knew The System did not work as promised.

So How Does This Relate To Lottery Systems?

It’s in the promise, and the perception of reality. The promise is that the lottery system can help you pick winning numbers. The perception is that it works - read those testimonials!

It’s quite possible those testimonials are entirely real, but the reality is they come from a very distorted perception. Because if you con enough people into using your lottery system then some are definitely going to win - not because your system works, but simply because you cover all the outcomes!

[NOTE ABOUT SYSTEMS: When I refer to 'lottery system', I mean a piece of software, book or website that claims to help you pick combinations of numbers that are more likely to win, be that through analysing past results or eliminating 'unlikely' results, i.e. misguided rubbish and lies. I don't mean multiple entries by wheeling numbers or using a lottery syndicate or pooled entries.]

Now the likely reality here is that system sellers don’t actually manage to con enough people to cover all the outcomes. But it doesn’t matter because they have this covered too - nobody is thrown out when they lose. All they have to do is say stick with it, the system does work, try again next week. A lucky winner doesn’t ultimately care if they win a lot of money on week 1 or week 101, their perception is they won. The reality is they won due to random chance only, as the thousands of people who lost using the same system should realise.

So the next time you are promised lottery numbers that have a better chance of winning, think about what perception of reality you’re actually being sold.

And if you’d like to know more your chances of winning the lottery, and the facts about what you can do to increase your chances please subscribe to my free lottery tips course.

What did you think of Derren’s new one-off special? Did you guess early what was going on?

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EuroMillions have a very special draw this Friday. Special for TWO very important reasons.

[1] The jackpot is a massive 130 Million Euros

Just imagine what you could do with even a small share of that?

[2] This Friday is a SuperDraw (read on to find why that is so special…)

SuperDraws Are VERY RARE!

They only do a couple of SuperDraws per YEAR. And when they do, we all want tickets!

SuperDraws are special because the jackpot CANNOT rollover. If nobody gets the full winning numbers, they give the jackpot away to the next prize level down!

That means your chances of winning 130 Million could be so much better than normal, for this Friday only.

Obviously, you should play in this draw!

Do NOT Wait, The Lottery Terminals Will Get Busy

Get your tickets for this draw today, because as we have seen in the past, big rollovers mean a last minute rush to buy tickets. Websites get slower, and lottery terminals have been known to fail under the load. That could mean you miss out if you wait.

You should do this now, either:-

[1] Buy tickets today before your local retailer gets too busy!

[2] Join a syndicate right now, today… go here for 36 EuroMillions entries for 5 UK pounds (NOTE: Sorry, NOT available to USA)

or,

[3] Buy tickets online, but do it today as the sites will get swamped later this week. Here’s a guide to buying EuroMillions tickets online

Hurry though, you only have a few days left.

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This is the one area of the lottery that you are directly in control of. So it’s a simple question, deserving a simple answer…
[A] Yes.

OK, maybe you want more answer for your money

Buying more tickets instantly changes the odds of winning. It’s your No.1 sure fire way to do so. And it’s extremely simple to work out the increased chances of winning you get.

Buy two tickets and you double your chances over having just the one ticket. OK, that still means you only have about a 2 in 13 million chance of winning, but it’s still twice the chance you had before. Buy three tickets and you have three times the chance. Buy a hundred tickets and you have, yes you guessed it, a hundred times the chance! (Of course buying a hundred lottery tickets can be pretty expensive to do by yourself, which is why I recommend to friends that they play in a syndicate).

So yes, buying more tickets does change your odds of winning, and just happens to be the best way to boost your chances of winning.

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