Derren sadly disappointed on this one - his ‘How To Win The Lottery’ show actually failed to deliver on the fundamental promise made earlier in the week.
He entertained as usual - the guy is a great showman - but he didn’t actually tell us how the trick was done. All was NOT revealed. Which is fine. Except that is exactly what we were promised!
He did of course misdirect and entertain, which is the nature and fun of the show.
Derren tells a small group of people they can predict lottery numbers, and they become genuinely impressed at being ‘one out’. Being one out is also known as being wrong of course. Nobody wins a prize for nearly matching a number! (But even letting them get ‘close’ is pure Derren at work of course)
The important facts to remember are:-
- Derren is not a psychic or mystic (he actually debunks people who claim to be!)
- Derren cannot predict lottery results, it’s simply not possible.
- It’s a trick, that’s what he does.
Derren ended the show as ‘whatever you choose to believe is up to you’, but we were cheated on the promise of him giving us the real answer. And that was an unusually flat and diasappointing ending to the illusion.
There was no ‘reveal’ and then further twist to leave us confounded and impressed.
Instead we’re simply left with the reality of ‘oh, so it was just a cheap camera trick then’.
Shame.
Comments ↓
1 Emma // Sep 11, 2009 at 7:39 pm
It wasn’t a cheap camera trick? He put heavier balls in the machine, so they would fall out first.
I was looking round on the internet to see what the BBC said about this, surely they need some kind of repayment from C4? And what about people who bought lottery tickets? I’d expect they’d want a refund.
2 sc // Sep 11, 2009 at 8:15 pm
Strange the way Derren didn’t let the group of 24 people see the numbers… why? It’s not as if they are gonna go out and buy a ticket as the time had long past to buy one… And strange that he picked a guy to do the adding and averaging in the previous round… someone who is in on it with Derren and just says the numbers to make it look like the (the group) picked 4 winning numbers. And still don’t know why he had that 2nd cameraman in the lottery draw, never used a shot from him at all…
I think its like people are saying, that the screen was spilt allowing to have the numbers switched (which is why he didn’t show the group)… and like Derren says, “people can try it at home…” but he and Camelot knows it was just a fake setup so they have nothing to be worried about millions of people coming up hitting the jackpot - cuz it ain’t never going to work cuz it never did!
Good entertainment though… what a joker.
3 Colin // Sep 12, 2009 at 5:09 am
I agree entirely. The dead give away was that he suddenly did the last calculations himself and never revealed the result. The truth is that all “Predictive” magic is done after the result is revealed and is usually a simple piece of sleight of hand, or sleight of split screen digital camera technology in this case.
Also interesting that he listed the “Only” three ways the trick could be done at the end (not the case at all) as a further piece of misdirection.
4 Overkill // Sep 12, 2009 at 7:04 am
LOL, a system for the lottery that works? Only a fool would believe that!
It’s a shame he didn’t say how he changed the ping pong balls to the right numbers (like he said he was going to). Of course if he had really predicted the numbers he would have revealed them just before the numbers were drawn.
5 Paul Wisdom // Sep 12, 2009 at 7:04 am
The room of 24 people is easy to explain. Derren does the lottery show, then goes into the room with the 24 people and does the final adding up. He ignores the results and writes the actual lottery numbers on the board, and leaves the room and they are then shown a video of the lottery show which they think is live - but actually it was recorded a little earlier.
6 Felicity // Sep 12, 2009 at 7:50 am
On Wednesday night, as many viewers have suggested, the live show used automated camera movement and split screen technology to achieve the effect. The second camera was used to film an alternative view of the ‘ball switch’, which was intended for use on Friday nights programme. Keep in mind that the brief cutaway to the second camera was actually pre-recorded footage, designed to give the impression that the main camera was manually operated.
In the hours that followed the show, both the production team and alert viewers noticed that one of the ‘lottery balls’ moved slightly during the split screen fade. This critical error proved to be virtually impossible to explain, so an updated plan was hatched.
In its original form, Derren would have taken us through the ‘group prediction’ theory until the big finale when he would have discounted it and revealed the ’split screen’ method. The point of this was not the prediction itself, but a means of showing how, under the right conditions, a group of people can be persuaded to believe in a seemingly impossible system. A willingness to succeed can be a very powerful tool.
In an attempt to deflect attention away from the ‘moving ball’ problem, Derren moved quickly to discount any of the technological theories thus reinforcing the idea of a more ‘psychological’ explanation. Of course, the programme failed to explain how we, the general public, could have possibly arranged either of the given methods.
So, on Fridays show, the original ’split screen’ explanation was replaced with the ‘fix the machine’ proposition, thereby ’side-stepping’ the whole issue of ‘ball switching’ and leaving the majority of the audience totally perplexed. This was seen as a preferable conclusion as the only alternative was to admit that the live illusion had failed. It’s also highly likely that the post prediction trailer which featured Derren holding a snowflake was actually intended to offer a clue to the ‘frozen screen’ method employed to achieve the ‘ball switch’, but due to the ‘ball movement’ problem, no mention of this was made during Friday night’s show. Additionally, the ‘fix the machine’ option was originally intended to feature not the lottery machine, but the afore mentioned automated camera system.
7 Conor // Sep 12, 2009 at 12:15 pm
Ask 24 to guess a number from one to (say) 50, and the resulting distribution will necessarily peak somewhere in the middle. Some will pick high, some will pick low, so the result of his suggested averaging must lie close to the middle. The only way have an average of 1, say, if if all 24 pick “1″. This is unlikely. Therefore the scheme cannot work - to predict the lottery all 24 somehow have to pick the right number - which is contrary to “wisdom of crowds”, where the average view is close to being correct. All misdirection and nothing to do with the 24 pickers.
8 Terry // Sep 12, 2009 at 1:44 pm
It would be a minor miracle for the average of all 6 of the numbers picked to be exactly divisable by 24…
So Derren rounds them up or down then.
Well, to get the number 2 (as he did), no more than 2 of the 24 people could predict higher that 19.
If 2 people picked number 19 and the other 22 picked number 1, it would add up to 60.
60 divided by 24 = 2.5
Then it would have to be rounded down to get to number 2.
Even if he rounded down (and not up) everytime, no more than 2 people could have a number above 24.
Out of 49 balls there are twenty five that are higher than number 24 and twenty three lower…
Out of 24 people writing numbers i’d say the chances of at least three people not writing a number somewhere between 25 and 49 are very slim.
Possible but very highly unlikely.
9 conor // Sep 13, 2009 at 4:06 am
@terry
I agree entirely. And if the system requires 24 people to essentially guess the right number, why do you need 24 - one would do. All misdirection…
10 DerekH // Sep 13, 2009 at 7:37 am
SC wrote “And still don’t know why he had that 2nd cameraman in the lottery draw, never used a shot from him at all…”
That’s because it *was* a split-screen camera trick (there’s a super “reveal” on YouTube showing how it was done), and the “second cameraman” was actually the guy who put the numbered balls on the stand in the seconds between the numbers coming out, and being sorted into numerical order…
The reason why it was filmed in an empty studio is all the more obvious - if there was an audience they would have instantly seen how it was done.
The more one looks at this, the more crystal clear it becomes
And the reason Derren Brown didn’t do the reveal is that he wants to do the same trick in another country or two to puff up his wallet
11 DerekH // Sep 13, 2009 at 7:41 am
Terry writes “It would be a minor miracle for the average of all 6 of the numbers picked to be exactly divisable by 24…
So Derren rounds them up or down then.”
No Terry, you have fallen for this, hook line and sinker - that whole palaver is simply misdirection. That isn’t the solution, and therefore, spending time analysing it is simply stopping you seeing the more obvious solution - it was a trick. There was no system. The numbers on the balls weren’t there at the start of the programme, because he didn’t know. He said there were legal reasons why they weren’t on show, because he knew people would believe him. There was no system.
It’s arguable whether the 24 people in that “system” were being duped like you were, or whether they were actors, but they were, like any good magician knows, the “distraction” that makes *you* take your eye, pardon the pun, off the ball.
12 Lethe // Sep 13, 2009 at 10:33 am
Why are people saying that he never admitted the trick? He did! He admitted, with a lot of comedic denial, that he fixed the machine. Which I don’t see as impossible since he even shows you the perfectly reproduced heavier lottery balls…
13 DerekH // Sep 13, 2009 at 10:49 am
Lethe “he even shows you the perfectly reproduced heavier lottery balls”
What makes you know they’re heavier? Only his word. And yet you believed it and are now telling me that they *really* are heavier!
Prove it…
Or did you fall for all the distraction he does?
14 Overkill // Sep 13, 2009 at 11:26 am
Lethe: lol, don’t you think millions of people might want their money back then?
15 Maxine // Sep 13, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Split screen… pretty plausible… clever stuff. Derren states that a year of his life had been devoted to this. What about if he or his programme organisers managed to persuade and arrange with the BBC/Camelot to delay the live lottery results on Wednesday night by a couple of minutes or so.
OR, the “live” draw to take place a couple of minutes before the BBC Lottery programme actually went live. In which case the “24’s” numbers were disregarded and switched to the ACTUAL known result numbers (as per the arrangement) just before “The Event” went live. Now why would the “powers that be” agree to that? Well, think about it… firstly, how would that scenario really affect the result from the lottery organisers perspective? Secondly, THE HUGE PUBLICITY… how many more people are now going to get together to try and predict the lottery result; with the resultant INCREASE in lottery ticket sales due to the WISDOM OF THE CROWD experiment… follow the money as they say… a guaranteed result for all parties.
16 DerekH // Sep 13, 2009 at 5:43 pm
Maxine writes “a guaranteed result for all parties.”
Who’s providing the guarantee?
Derren Brown? No.
The gullible? No.
You? Well thanks Maxine! If you think it’s guaranteed, then please post a scan of your bank statement here in a week’s time.
Guaranteed result for all parties?
You carry on believing that then, and join the ranks of people sucked into to Derren Brown’s gullibility plug-hole
So please, if you win the lottery (5 out of 6 balls - that’s all he promised) - do tell.
And before you think I’m simply being destructive, ask yourself this one simple question…
If Derren Brown COULD predict the lottery, and because he “says” he was banned from buying a ticket (they don’t ask your name when you buy a ticket, do they?) don’t you think he’d have chosen a surrogate ticket-buyer and filmed HER reaction when she won..?
When Derren says “a year of his life has been devoted to this”, it’s rubbish.
I hereby state that I’ve spent FIVE years of my life replying to your post. I do. I really do state it.
I haven’t, and Derren Brown spent about 2 weeks of (yes, I admit it) gorgeously inspirational time planning it…
Maxine, the powers-that-be would NOT agree to operate outside their legally permitted boundaries for monetary gain.
Stop and think. You’ve not only be duped, but you’ve been *so* duped you’re mailing us and telling us rubbish!
I’ll eat my roof-tiles if *you* are right….
17 Wes // Sep 14, 2009 at 4:02 am
I think Derren is having the greatest week of his life. Split screens, lasers, projection. All of the show is misguiding us - the fear decision making, the wisdom of the crowd. The last of which is non-sense for predicting random numbers from 1 - 24. Has anyone checked the real lotery results with the 3 - 4 right balls the 24 people guessed earlier? I think all the team-building was just to make them believe they could do it.
I don’t think Derren Brown is a person that would simply use high-end technology to fake us at home.
No, i think the sollution is much easier. From the beginning of the show, Derren says he´s being legal, that everything is live, that he spent a year of his life on this. Isn´t the sollution much much easier?
18 Overkill // Sep 14, 2009 at 4:37 am
An almost mathematically impossible prediction of the future or a very simple camera trick? Hmmm… I can’t decide, lol.
19 Overkill // Sep 14, 2009 at 5:46 am
His next program he’s going to glue me to my sofa! hmm… derrrrrr… I wonder if that will work? lol! OMG how easy is it for him to make money!
I might make my own program were I make everyone fly! It’s funny that there are some people that are so gullible
20 Maxine // Sep 14, 2009 at 4:41 pm
Sorry DerekH - but I wasn’t offering a WARRANTY or GUARANTEE from myself for anything -where did THAT come from? (duh)
Lets just say that Camelot and Derren Brown won’t be any the poorer after this bout of publicity. I thought that was the point I had made (..obviously not..)
AND I certainly was not duped - of course it was a trick - I simply offered an explanation of how it MAY have been done.
Whether or not it was a”set-up” such as I described - and rubbished by DerekH -matters not…. HOWEVER, it may be DerekH who has been duped, or is certainly gullible, if he truly thinks that ANY “powers that be”, have NEVER operated outside legally permitted boundaries for monetry gain!!
Get the roof tiles down - hope you are hungry Derek (lol)
21 DerekH // Sep 15, 2009 at 5:40 am
Maxine wrote “but I wasn’t offering a guarantee”. Well, if you read my post more carefully, you’ll see that you did indeed use the word “guaranteed”, and I spent the opening section of my response trying to work out who was the guarantor. I went through all the possibilities, and deduced that it must be you. Now you’re saying it wasn’t.
Ah well.
Anyway, I’ll certainly be looking at the jackpot figures for recent and (when they’ve happened) for forthcoming lotteries, and yes, you may be right that lottery takings will go up. Ironically, it won’t be the *wisdom* of the crowds at play there
You are quite right that I would be guilty of being naive if I stated that powers that be never operate outside their permitted boundaries. I wasn’t clear that I was being specific to this draw, which will obviously have been watched much more carefully than most others.
You’re right that the real winner was Derren Brown, and “being glued to the sofa” (his next trick) might simply be “feeling compelled to watch” to see what next he’s up to… In which case up go his viewing figures again.
In the circumstances, we should perhaps stop bandying words around, call it a draw, Maxine, and share out the tiles
“I’d like to order some food please - put it on the slate…”
22 Wilko // Sep 15, 2009 at 5:42 am
The Wisdom of Crowds dupe for lottery numbers may increase sales of lottery tickets as many people don’t realise that lottery numbers have no actual mathematical value, they are effectively a ‘picture’ to differentiate the balls from each other. If you had a lottery that drew balls with photographs of Hollywood actors’ faces on them, how could you get averages of faces? The numbers are effectively images, not real numerical values.
23 Spiv // Sep 15, 2009 at 7:10 am
DerekH, read that again:
“follow the money as they say… a guaranteed result for all parties.”
i.e., the lottery people make even more money than usual, and even more people than usual buy lottery tickets that don’t win.
That’s what is guaranteed.
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