[Q] I’ve been analysing all my past lottery results over the years and whilst I know these things are supposed to be random, there is a pattern. Some numbers have definitely been drawn more often than others, and some have definitely appeared in the jackpot combination more than others. Should I play those numbers?
[A] You’re absolutely right.
Do you remember rolling a dice at school and charting the results? You tallied up each number as it was rolled, and then drew a little bar graph of the results. And the graph made pretty much a straight line proving that all the numbers had the same chance of being rolled.
Or did it?
Actually your graph was pretty wonky - oh yes it was! But don’t take offense, I’m sure you drew yours just as well as I did ;-). But all of our graphs were actually pretty wonky, and wonky in different ways too. If we took all our results together and drew another graph then we’d have one that was smoother, but still not perfectly straight.
We all get caught up in what we think we learned about ‘averages’.
But the fact is if you take any set of past results from any lottery for any period in time, you will find the same thing. Some results appear more or less often than others - a wonky graph. And that’s because this is exactly the sort of result that is entirely normal for a random process. If it were not possible for this to happen then the results would not be random.
With randomness if you actually repeat the ‘test’ enough times then every possible set of results would happen. Not just every result, but every different wonky graph for each set of results you pull out. So everything from never winning a single thing on the lottery, to hitting the jackpot every single draw for your whole life!
This is how random works. Just because the current state of play is ‘less likely than the true average’ does not mean there is anything unusual going on.
The weak point in the chain here is actually our brains - they love to see patterns in randomness. That’s the nature of our brains, we just can’t help trying to make a nice comfortable order out of things. And when it happens to be numbers we’re trying to make order of we’re even worse than ever!
So the real question here is not which numbers to play as a result of all this analysis, but whether the past results have anything useful to reveal to us in the first place. And the fact is, they don’t.
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Comments ↓
1 K.C. // Apr 23, 2008 at 3:43 pm
I have been working with the lotto for the last 3 years and there is a way to forecast with a 20% to 25% accuracy what the numbers will do.
Some people might thing that is not possible, but I know for sure that there is a way for an educated guess of what numbers are supposed to appear.
So far I have been hitting:
80% of the time 2 0ut of 3 on pick 3.
40% of the time 2 out 0f 4 on Pick 4.
20% of the time 3 0ut of 5 on Pick 5.
I have not hit the big pay-off “Yet” but it’s very promising for somebody that 3 years ago would not spend a penny on the lotto.
Good luck to everybody ( LUCK …………..????)
2 Lottery-Guy.com // Apr 24, 2008 at 3:16 am
Hi K.C. - those results look a little guessed 80%, 40%, 20%..?
But sorry to burst your bubble, even without seeing proper detailed figures, common sense alone dictates that your results are nothing more or less than random chance. Sounds like you’ve been hit by the infrequency illusion. Good luck.
3 Al // Nov 27, 2008 at 11:23 am
Hi all,
Try using Excel function LINEST(chronological list of the lowest numbers drawn), combined with SLOPE and Y-INTERCEPTION.
This way I predict 4-5 out of 6 numbers to be drawn. I also include adjacent numbers (i.e. if predicted number is 11, I include 10 and 12 also).
When done above for all 6 numbers, I get about 15-20 numbers to be wheeled.
I usually hit 4-6.
4 Teufel // Nov 27, 2008 at 2:41 pm
The past is just that - the past as far as exact repeats go. Yet, depending upon the type of pattern that you chase and record the past sets can yield information as to how a certain pattern was accomplished but not necessarily the exact data. Unless that you use an assorted amount of pattern predictability in your tool kit, you won’t understand what it is that I am saying.
Teufel…
5 Lottery-Guy.com // Nov 28, 2008 at 11:58 am
Hi Teufel. So you’re saying you can use tools to predict patterns in the results, but not actual results..?
Sounds to me like you’re just predicting ‘patterns’ that mere randomness dictates will be there (like people who chase sums and deltas and such like). So apart from being of passing interest to us geeks who like numbers, it doesn’t actually give any benefit in terms of chances of winning.
6 Lottery-Guy.com // Nov 28, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Hey Al. I wasn’t clear on how many lines you’re actually playing, or what your win rate is.
But 2 points really:-
1. Forgetting all the wacky Excel maths a moment, if you compare the actual number of lines you are playing against the odds for the game you’re playing - how do you compare to average luck?
2. If you’re predicting a number 11, why pick 10 and 12 too? These are balls bouncing around in a draw machine, so they don’t know anything about Excel, or the fact they are labelled numerically closely to your predicted number..?
7 John faulkner // Nov 29, 2008 at 9:27 am
This is a great blog and I agree 100%. We cannot say often enough that it is impossible to predict future lottery numbers based on past results. In fact there is no way of predicting lottery numbers, period.
However it still matters what lottery numbers you pick because some numbers lead to bigger prizes if you do win.
8 Teufel // Nov 29, 2008 at 10:31 am
A rundown for the pick 3 game of …1… thru ..0.. which equals 30 digits by adding a fourth row or a total of 40 digits gives a pattern of predictability when I create a 5 x 6 rundown of the same numbers or a 6 x 5 of the same sets. The answer to each days win shows in these constructs. I know which day (s) to use and how to use them. They all came from a piece of past history and not in the order that the clues or patterns were derived. I do not “chase patterns” per se but the resulting end use of the created pattern shows me where the win will fall. Many people have brushed me off but I work with simplistic ideas and because they are so simple players tend to try and make rocket science of common abstract thinking. Those folks that have asked me usually blow the whole pattern instead of using the instructions that I give which are six items. I let the players choose their own numbers from the very short list that I give to work from. The pattern that I use sets the rundown and the rundown is converted to a …5 x 6… or a …6 x 5… setup. Once done this setup is good for seven days and all of this came from past history and logical thinking.
Teufel…
9 Lottery-Guy.com // Dec 2, 2008 at 4:46 am
But surely Teufel whatever method you use to pick a subset of numbers - you’re going to find some of the winning numbers appear in that subset..! That’s random numbers for you.
But bottom line… beneath the complexity of what you’re doing, does it actually make any difference to your win rate versus choosing numbers randomly?
The answer to that has to be ‘no’..?
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